The last decade at the US Open has been turbulent at the top, with nine different women hoisting the singles trophy (only Naomi Osaka has managed two titles in that time), six of whom were first-time major champions—and not a single back-to-back champ since Serena Williams claimed the last of three consecutive crowns in 2014.
Emma Navarro ensured there will once again be no repeat winner in 2024, eliminating Coco Gauff in a back-and-forth three-setter in the Round of 16.
That does not mean, however, that the draw is bereft of stars. 2022 champion and top seed Iga Swiatek and two-time Australian Open champion and No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka have been impressive thus far—and are heavily favored to face each other in the final. Still, the toughest two weeks in tennis have a habit of making prognosticators look silly, as recent history has indicated, so consider everyone remaining a legitimate title threat.
With that, let’s take a look at the octet who will challenge for this year’s crown:
- Seed/Rank: 1/1
- Next Opponent: No. 6 Jessica Pegula
- Best US Open Result: W (2022)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2020 Roland Garros, 2022 Roland Garros, 2022 US Open, 2023 Roland Garros, 2024 Roland Garros)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-0
- Time Spent on Court: 5 hours, 59 minutes
Outlook: Swiatek won the women’s singles title in 2022—her lone major outside Paris—but she also has had her share of disappointing moments in Flushing Meadows, falling in the second round in 2019, the third round in 2020 and the fourth round in 2021 and 2023. There have been no such troubles this year. The two-time reigning world No. 1 had a difficult first-round match, a 6-4, 7-6 victory over Kamilla Rakhimova, but she has cruised since then, dropping just 12 games over her last six sets to enter the home stretch of this Flushing fortnight in ideal shape. She is one of three players remaining in the women’s draw who has yet to drop a set; her opponent in the quarterfinals, Jessica Pegula, is another.
- Seed/Rank: 2/2
- Next Opponent: No. 7 Zheng Qinwen
- Best US Open Result: F (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: W (2023-24 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-1
- Time Spent on Court: 5 hours, 36 minutes
Outlook: Sabalenka has been knocking on the door of a US Open title the last few years, reaching the semifinals in 2021 and 2022 and advancing to the final last year. Thus far, she has the look of a 2024 champion and is arguably the favorite of all the players remaining. The two-time Australian Open titlist is on a nine-match winning streak, having captured the crown in Cincinnati prior to the Open, and has dropped only one frame through four rounds in New York, the first set to No. 29 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round—a match she stormed back to win, 2-6, 6-1, 6-2. Sabalenka has not been tested in her other three contests, and the 5 hours, 36 minutes she has spent on court is nine minutes shy of matching Pegula for the least of any of the eight women remaining. All that should put her in good stead for a run at her first US Open title and third Grand Slam championship.
Seed/Rank: 6/6
Next Opponent: No. 1 Iga Swiatek
Best US Open Result: QF (2022, 2024)
Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2021 Australian Open, 2022 Australian Open, 2022 Roland Garros, 2022 US Open, 2023 Australian Open, 2023 Wimbledon, 2024 US Open)
Sets Won/Lost: 8-0
Time Spent on Court: 5 hours, 27 minutes
Outlook: Pegula has established herself as one of the best players in the women’s game in recent years, but she has been frequently stymied at this round in the majors, going 0-6 in quarterfinals in her Grand Slam singles career. Her summer, however, indicates that this might be the year she breaks through. She reached the semifinals in San Diego and the quarterfinals in Miami early in the season and is one of the hottest players on tour entering the Open, with titles in Berlin and Toronto and a runner-up showing in Cincinnati. Her run through the draw in Flushing Meadows has been flawless; Pegula has yet to drop a set.
Her next match is a doozy, however: top seed Swiatek, against whom she is 3-6 lifetime (winning only one game in their last encounter, at the 2023 WTA Finals), though 2-2 in their last four matchups.
- Seed/Rank: 7/7
- Next Opponent: No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka
- Best US Open Result: QF (2023-24)
- Best Grand Slam Result: F (2024 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-3
- Time Spent on Court: 8 hours, 59 minutes
Outlook: Zheng staged her Grand Slam breakout at last year’s US Open, and she’s built on that success in 2024, reaching her first Grand Slam final in Melbourne and upsetting Swiatek (on clay, no less) en route to the gold medal at the Summer Olympics. The 21-year-old has openly expressed that the next step in her career is to win a Grand Slam title, and her big serve and overall game are well-suited to the US Open’s hard courts. Working against her is her difficult path to the quarterfinal; Zheng has gone three sets in three of her four matches, and the nearly nine hours she has logged on court is two-plus hours more than any of the remaining quarterfinalists. That could spell trouble in the quarterfinals when she has to play a fresh Sabalenka, who ousted the Chinese star in last year’s US Open and defeated her again in this year’s Australian Open final.
- Seed/Rank: 13/12
- Next Opponent: No. 26 Paula Badosa
- Best US Open Result: QF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: R1 (2022-23)
- Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2024 Wimbledon, 2024 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-2
- Time Spent on Court: 6 hours, 7 minutes
Outlook: Navarro has been one of the breakthrough players of 2024. Having never advanced past the second round at a Grand Slam prior to this year, the University of Virginia standout has reached the third round or better at all four majors, including a fourth-round finish at Roland Garros and a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon. She has also reached the semifinals or better at six tournaments, the highlights being a title in Hobart and a run to the penultimate round in Toronto earlier this summer.
After a smooth start to this year’s tournament—Navarro won her first two matches in a combined 2 hours, 2 minutes—she has had to battle through her last two rounds, the New York native needing three competitive sets to defeat both No. 19 seed Marta Kostyuk in the third round and defending champion Coco Gauff in the Round of 16. Her reward is the red-hot Paula Badosa, who will also be making her US Open quarterfinal debut.
- Seed/Rank: 22/21
- Next Opponent: Karolina Muchova
- Best US Open Result: QF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: 2R (2022-23)
- Best Grand Slam Result: SF (2023 Roland Garros)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-2
- Time Spent on Court: 6 hours, 54 minutes
Outlook: The perpetually underrated Haddad Maia is in the midst of another solid season, after finishing both the 2022 and 2023 campaigns ranked in the world’s Top 15. The Brazilian lefty had struggled in previous US Opens, going just 2-3 in her three prior appearances, but she has played solid tennis to this stage, backing up her third-round shellacking of No. 15 Anna Kalinskaya (6-3, 6-1) with a three-set win over two-time US Open runner-up Caroline Wozniacki to advance to her second major quarterfinal. That earns her a date with the talented but unseeded Karolina Muchova; the Czech has won all three of their previous matchups, including a three-set victory last year in Cincinnati.
- Seed/Rank: 26/29
- Next Opponent: No. 13 Emma Navarro
- Best US Open Result: QF (2024)
- Previous Best US Open Result: R2 (2021-22)
- Best Grand Slam Result: QF (2021 Roland Garros, 2024 US Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-1
- Time Spent on Court: 6 hours, 44 minutes
Outlook: Badosa has enjoyed a strong summer hard-court season, winning the title in Washington, D.C., and reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati, and has continued her run of form in New York, where she’s into her second career major quarterfinal. It’s been a topsy turvy Open for Badosa, who was an ascending star before injuries derailed her rise in 2023. She cruised in her first- and fourth-round matches and won her second-round match in straight sets, but had a two-and-a-half-hour battle in the third round, fending off a match point against Elena-Gabriela Ruse before winning 10-8 in the third-set tiebreak. Badosa and her opponent in the quarters, Emma Navarro, have played just once before, a three-set victory for the Spaniard in the second round in Rome.
- Seed/Rank: --/52
- Next Opponent: Beatriz Haddad Maia
- Best US Open Result: SF (2023)
- Best Grand Slam Result: F (2023 Roland Garros), SF (2021 Australian Open)
- Sets Won/Lost: 8-0
- Time Spent on Court: 5 hours, 36 minutes
Outlook: Muchova is the lone unseeded player into the quarterfinals (men or women), but she is hardly a stranger to this stage. When healthy, the 28-year-old has been among the world’s best, but after a standout 2021, she was bedeviled by injuries in 2022. And after she regained her place in the Top 10 last year, she had to shut it down again, this time for surgery on her right wrist. Finally healthy, Muchova is on the come again, reaching the final in Palermo in July and excelling at this year’s Open. Her run to the quarterfinals includes victories over two-time US Open champion Osaka, world No. 38 Anastasia Potapova and 2024 Roland Garros and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini. Despite that relatively difficult draw, Muchova has yet to drop a set, meaning she should be fresh and ready for No. 22 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarterfinals.
